According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions are expected to reach a “high point” as early as 2025. A peak was reached due to the “deep reorientation” of markets global energy markets caused by the war in Ukraine.
Is the war in Ukraine, good for the climate? In any case, this is what the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggests in its annual report published on Thursday. Global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions are set to ‘ high point’ as early as 2025, after surging investment in sustainable energy caused by the ‘deep shift’ in global energy markets, says the report. ‘agency.
“The global energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is causing profound, long-term changes that have the potential to accelerate the transition to a more sustainable and secure energy system,” the IEA said in his report.
While some countries are currently seeking to increase or diversify their supply of oil or gas – fossil fuels with high CO2 emissions – many are studying an acceleration of their structural changes towards clean energies. Europe’s “break” with Russian gas has come with a speed “that few people thought possible”, notes the IEA.
A PEAK IN 2025
As Russia “fails” to redirect gas flows that previously went from Europe to other countries, its Russian gas and oil export levels are never going to return to where they were in 2021. , according to the report.
Every year, the Agency draws up three scenarios to analyze the energy evolution of the planet. For the first time, the three scenarios were studied to identify a consumption peak or plateau for each of the fossil fuels (coal, gas, oil).
In the central scenario, which is based on governments’ already announced climate investment commitments, global energy-related CO2 emissions would thus peak at 37 billion tonnes in 2025, then drop to 32 billion tonnes in 2050.
Yet despite these efforts, average global temperatures could rise by around 2.5°C by 2100, which is “far from enough to avoid severe climate consequences”.
The Agency once again stresses the need for massive investment in clean energies, whether green or simply low-carbon such as nuclear, and for acceleration in certain areas such as electric batteries (for cars), photovoltaic, and the electrolyzers which will produce hydrogen intended to decarbonize industry in particular.
In its central scenario, these investments must exceed $2 trillion by 2030, and they would have to rise to $4 trillion to meet the conditions of the scenario foreseeing net zero emissions in 2050.
A few days before COP27 in Egypt, the IEA finally raises the question of inequalities between countries in the face of global warming. “Major international efforts are called for to bridge the worrying gap that is widening between advanced economies and those of emerging or developing countries” in terms of investment in clean energy, the report points out.